Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule), named after Thomas Bayes (/beɪz/), gives a mathematical rule for inverting [[conditional probability]-s, allowing the probability of a cause to be found given its effect. For example, with Bayes' theorem, the probability that a patient has a disease given that they tested positive for that disease can be found using the probability that the test yields a positive result when the disease is present. The theorem was developed in the 18th century by Bayes and independently by Pierre-Simon Laplace. One of Bayes' theorem's many applications is Bayesian inference, an approach to statistical inference, where it is used to invert the probability of observations given a model configuration (i.e., the likelihood function) to obtain the probability of the model configuration given the observations (i.e., the posterior probability). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Thomas Bayes (/beɪz/ ⓘ BAYZ; c. 1701 – 7 April 1761[2][4][note 1]) was an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister who is known for formulating a specific case of the theorem that bears his name: Bayes' theorem. Bayes never published what would become his most famous accomplishment; his notes were edited and published posthumously by Richard Price. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Bayes
Sam Kriss: Child’s Play. The first sign that something in San Francisco had gone very badly wrong was the signs. In New York, all the advertising on the streets and on the subway assumes that you, the person reading, are an ambiently depressed twenty-eight-year-old office worker whose main interests are listening to podcasts, ordering delivery, and voting for the Democrats. I thought I found that annoying, but in San Francisco they don’t bother advertising normal things at all... Here the world automatically assumes that instead of wanting food or drinks or a new phone or car, what you want is some kind of arcane B2B service for your startup. You are not a passive consumer. You are making something. (more)
Eric Ross Weinstein (/ˈwaɪnstaɪn/; born October 26, 1965[2]) is an American investor and financial executive.[3] As of 2021, he was managing director for the American venture capital firm Thiel Capital.[4] Weinstein has hosted a podcast called The Portal, coined the term "intellectual dark web", and has proposed a theory of everything called "Geometric Unity" that has largely been ignored or met with skepticism in the scientific community. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Weinstein (more)
Someodd: I Replaced My Web Stack With Gopher and Failed Less. (more)
Haskell (/ˈhæskəl/[27]) is a general-purpose, statically typed, purely functional programming language with type inference and lazy evaluation.[28][29] Designed for teaching, research and industrial application, Haskell has pioneered a number of advanced programming language features such as type classes, which enable type-safe operator overloading. Haskell's main implementation is the Glasgow Haskell Compiler (GHC). It is named after logician Haskell Curry.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell_(programming_language) (more)
In economics, creative destruction (German: schöpferische Zerstörung) is a process in which new innovations replace and make obsolete older innovations. The concept is usually identified with the economist Joseph Schumpeter,[2][3][4] who derived it from the work of Karl Marx and popularized it as a theory of economic innovation and the business cycle. It is also sometimes known as Schumpeter's gale. In Marxian economic theory, the concept refers more broadly to the linked processes of the accumulation and annihilation of wealth under capitalism.[5][6][7] The German sociologist Werner Sombart has been credited[4] with the first use of these terms in his work Krieg und Kapitalismus (War and Capitalism, 1913). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction (more)
Marxian economics, or the Marxian school of economics, is a heterodox school of political economic thought. Its foundations can be traced back to Karl Marx's critique of political economy. However, unlike critics of political economy, Marxian economists tend to accept the concept of the economy prima facie.[clarification needed] Marxian economics comprises several different theories and includes multiple schools of thought, which are sometimes opposed to each other; in many cases Marxian analysis is used to complement, or to supplement, other economic approaches.[1] An example can be found in the works of Soviet economists like Lev Gatovsky, who sought to apply Marxist economic theory to the objectives, needs, and political conditions of the socialist construction in the Soviet Union, contributing to the development of Soviet political economy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marxian_economics (more)
The labor theory of value (LTV) is an economic theory that argues that the economic value of a good or service is determined by the total amount of socially necessary labor required to produce it. The LTV is usually associated with Marxian economics, although it also appears in the theories of earlier classical economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo... From the late 19th century, the labor theory of value was largely supplanted in mainstream neoclassical economics by the theory of marginal utility. It has been the subject of extensive critique, including the charge that it is unable to account for the effects of capital intensity on prices (the transformation problem), that it is logically inconsistent when applied to complex production processes such as joint production, and that its reliance on value as a metric is redundant because prices can be derived directly from physical production data. Despite these critiques, the LTV remains a central concept in most schools of Marxian economics. Modern debates often center on whether it should be understood as a direct theory of price determination or as a framework for understanding the contradictory social form of labor under capitalism, with different schools of thought offering varying interpretations of its purpose and validity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_theory_of_value
Benjamin Ricketson Tucker (/ˈtʌkər/; April 17, 1854 – June 22, 1939) was an American individualist anarchist and self-identified socialist.[1] Tucker was the editor and publisher of the American individualist anarchist periodical Liberty (1881–1908). Tucker described his form of anarchism as "consistent Manchesterism" and "unterrified Jeffersonianism".[2] Tucker looked upon anarchism as a part of the broader socialist movement. Tucker harshly opposed state socialism and was a supporter of free-market socialism[3] and libertarian socialism[4] which he termed anarchist or anarchistic socialism.[5] He connected the classical economics of Adam Smith and the Ricardian socialists as well as that of Josiah Warren, Karl Marx and Pierre-Joseph Proudhon to socialism.[6] Some modern commentators have described Tucker as an anarcho-capitalist,[7][8] although this has been disputed by others.[9][10] During his lifetime, Tucker opposed capitalism[11] and considered himself a socialist due to his belief in the labor theory of value and disputed many of the dictionary definitions of the term which he believed were inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Tucker
sounds like a SmallWorld-oriented Libertarian model. (more)
Rentier capitalism is a concept in Marxist and heterodox economics to refer to rent-seeking and exploitation by companies in capitalist systems.[1][2][3] The term was developed by Austrian social geographer Hans Bobek[4] describing an economic system that was widespread in antiquity and still widespread in the Middle East, where productive investments are largely lacking and the highest possible share of income is skimmed off from ground-rents, leases and rents. Consequently, in many developing countries, rentier capitalism is an obstacle to economic development. A rentier is someone who earns income from capital without working. This is generally done through ownership of assets that generate yield (cash generated by assets), such as rental properties, shares in dividend-paying companies, or bonds that pay interest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentier_capitalism (more)
pointer/history page http://jonudell.net/ (more)
Openness to experience is one of the domains which are used to describe human personality in the Big Five Model.[1][2] Openness involves six facets, or dimensions: active imagination (fantasy), aesthetic sensitivity, attentiveness to inner feelings, preference for variety (novelty?) (adventurousness), intellectual curiosity, and challenging authority (psychological liberalism).[3] A great deal of psychometric research has demonstrated that these facets or qualities are significantly correlated.[2] Thus, openness can be viewed as a global personality trait consisting of a set of specific traits, habits, and tendencies that cluster together. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openness_to_experience
Extraversion and introversion are a central trait dimension in human personality theory. The terms were introduced into psychology by Carl Jung,[1] though both the popular understanding and current psychological usage are not the same as Jung's original concept. Extraversion (also spelled extroversion[2]) is typically associated with sociability, talkativeness, and high energy, while introversion is linked to introspection, reserve, and a preference for solitary activities.[3] Jung defined introversion as an "attitude-type characterised by orientation in life through subjective psychic contents", and extraversion as "an attitude-type characterised by concentration of interest on the external object".[4] While often presented as opposite ends of a single continuum, many personality theorists, such as Carl Jung, have suggested that most individuals possesses elements of both traits, with one being more dominant. Virtually all comprehensive models of personality include these concepts in various forms. Examples include the Big Five model, Jung's analytical psychology, Hans Eysenck's three-factor model, Raymond Cattell's 16 personality factors, the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, and the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraversion_and_introversion
Conscientiousness is the personality trait of being responsible, careful, or diligent. Conscientiousness implies a desire to do a task well, and to take obligations to others seriously. Conscientious people tend to be efficient and organized as opposed to easy-going and disorderly. They tend to show self-discipline, act dutifully, and aim for achievement; they display planned rather than spontaneous behavior; and they are generally dependable. Conscientiousness manifests in characteristic behaviors such as being neat, systematic, careful, thorough, and deliberate (tending to think carefully before acting). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscientiousness
Agreeableness is the personality trait of being kind, sympathetic, cooperative, warm, honest, straightforward, and considerate.[1][2] In personality psychology, agreeableness is one of the five major dimensions of personality structure, reflecting individual differences in cooperation.[3] People who score high on measures of agreeableness are empathetic (empathy) and self-sacrificing, while those with low agreeableness are prone to selfishness, insincerity, and zero-sum thinking.[4] Those who score low on agreeableness may show dark triad tendencies, such as narcissistic, antisocial, and manipulative behavior.[5] Agreeableness is a superordinate trait, meaning it is a grouping of personality sub-traits that cluster together statistically. Some lower-level traits, or facets, that are commonly grouped under agreeableness include trust, straightforwardness, altruism, helpfulness, modesty, and tender-mindedness.[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness
Neuroticism or negativity is a personality trait associated with negative emotions. It is one of the Big Five traits. People high in neuroticism experience negative emotions like fear, anger, shame, envy, or depression more often and more intensely than those who score low on neuroticism.[1] Highly neurotic people have more trouble coping with stressful events, are more likely to insult or lash out at others, and are more likely to interpret ordinary situations (like minor frustrations) as hopelessly difficult. Neuroticism is closely-related to mood disorders such as anxiety and depression.[2][3][4] Individuals who score low in neuroticism tend to be more emotionally stable and less reactive to stress. They tend to be calm, even-tempered, and less likely to feel tense or rattled. Although they are low in negative emotion, they are not necessarily high in positive emotions, which are more commonly associated with extraversion and agreeableness.[5] Neurotic extroverts, for example, would experience high levels of both positive and negative emotional states, a kind of "emotional roller coaster". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuroticism
This is the publicly-readable WikiLog Digital Garden (20k pages, starting from 2002) of Bill Seitz (a Product Manager and CTO). (You can get your own pair of garden/note-taking spaces from FluxGarden.)
My Calling: Reality Hacking to accelerate Evolution by increasing Freedom, Agency, and Leverage of Free Agents and smaller groups (SmallWorld) via D And D of Thinking Tools (software and Games To Play).
See Intro Page for space-related goals, status, etc.; or Wiki Node for more terse summary info.
Beware the War On The Net!
Current:
- head of product for an early-stage boot-strapped company
- founder FluxGarden for Digital Garden hosting
- wrote Hack Your Life With A Private Wiki Notebook Getting Things Done And Other Systems ASIN:B00HHJA5JS
My Coding for fun.
Past:
- Director Product Managment, NCSA Sports
- CTO/Product Manager at a series of startups: MedScape, then Axiom Legal, then Living Independently, then DailyLit, then AEP...
- founded Family Financial Future, personal-financial-planning nagware for parents
- consulting
- founded Teamflux.com, a hosting service for wiki-based collaboration spaces.
- founded Wikilogs.com, a hosting service for WikiLog-s (wiki-based weblogs).
Agile Product Development, Product Management from MVP to Product-Market Fit, Adding Product To Your Startup Team, Agility, Context, and Team Agency, (2022-10-12) Accidental Learnings of a Journeyman Product Manager
Oligarchy; Big Levers, Theory of Change, Change the World, (2020-06-27) Ways To Nudge Future; Network Enlightenment, Optimistic Near Future Vision; Huge Invention; Alternatives To A College Degree; Credit Crisis 2008; Economic Transition; Network Economy; Making A Living; Varieties Of Info Technology Jobs; Generative Schooling; Product Oriented Unschooling; Reality Hacker; A 20th Century Economic Theory
FluxGarden; Network Enlightenment Ecosystem; ThinkingTools Interaction as Medium; Hypermedia Pattern Language; Everyone Needs Their Own ThinkingSpace; Digital Garden; Virtual ThinkingSpace; Thinking Tools Companies; Webs Of Thinkers And Thoughts; My CollaborationWare History; Wiki Proliferation; Portal Collaboration Roadmap; Wiki For GroupWare, Overlapping Scopes Of Collaboration, Email Discussion Beside Wiki, Wiki For CollaborationWare, Collaboration Roadmap; Sister Sites; Wiki Hack
Personal Cloud; 2018-11-29-NextOpenInfrastructure, 2018-11-15-BooksVsTweets; Stream/Flow Vs Garden/Stock
Social Warrens; Culture War; 2017-02-15-MindmapCultureWarSocialMediaEconomy; Cultural Pluralism
Fractally Generative Pattern Language, Small Tribe, SimplestThing, Becoming A Reality Hacker, Less-Bullshit Living, The Craft; Games To Play; Evolution, Hack Your Life With A Private Wiki Notebook, Getting Things Done, And Other Systems
Digital Therapeutics, (2021-05-26) Pondering a Mental Health space, CoachBot; Inside-Out Markov Chain


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